The race for seventh

Although we had a setback at Chelsea last week, we did not lose much ground in the race for seventh given that West Ham only managed a draw at home to West Brom. However, Wigan and Fulham moved ahead of us and Tottenham are now on our tails.

If 53 points is the magic number, we need to achieve 18 points from now nine games, whilst West Ham (the side in possession) require only 13 points to secure seventh spot based on the calculations from my original post on this topic.

A win at home to Sunderland on Sunday would do wonders for our hopes of achieving this, especially as though West Ham have a tricky looking fixture away to Blackburn at Ewood Park.

The race for seventh

Following the win over Aston Villa, Mark Hughes proclaimed that a seventh placed finish was very much on his agenda:

"Seventh has to be realistic for us and we will work to that end," Hughes said. "We have targets. We are still in the Uefa Cup and we have high hopes of progressing further. But our bread and butter is the Premier League and I would like to think we can achieve something in it this season."

With United recently winning the Carling Cup, and the final four of the FA Cup featuring United, Chelsea, Arsenal (more than likely) and Everton, this will ensure that a seventh placed finish will gain automatic entry into next seasons Europa League.

The last five seasons have seen the following points totals secure seventh spot:

• 2007/08 - 58 points
  
• 2006/07 - 56 points
  
• 2005/06 - 58 points
  
• 2004/05 - 55 points
  
• 2003/04 - 53 points
  

West Ham are in possession right now with 39 points from 28 games, an average of 1.39 points per game. This suggests that this average over the final ten games will project a seventh place finish of 53 points, lower than any year since 2003/04 (and lower than our own tally of 55 points from last season of course).

With ourselves sitting on 35 points at present, this therefore means we will need a minimum of 18 points (or 6 wins) from our final 10 matches, a task not impossible given our home form of late, but will be difficult given our away form - particularly looking at our remaining fixtures.

Seventh place is definitely attainable, but clearly more consistency needs to be shown over the final quarter of the season and you do wonder what effect a continued run in the UEFA Cup will have on our league form. There are a number of teams bunched together with designs on seventh place, but realistically it does look to be between ourselves and West Ham.

It will be interesting to see if the projected target of 53 points will be enough, and is something that I'll definitely revisit as the season progresses.

City 4 West Brom 2

Unsurprisingly, there was much tipping of West Brom for an upset ahead of yesterday's game - given our exertions in the UEFA Cup and also no doubt our propensity for allowing those sides near the bottom a great shot at taking three points.

Despite wobbling enough to allow West Brom back into the game at 2-2 (with a sniff of a win) we had enough quality and firepower to ultimately go on and take the points, and coupled with results elsewhere (notably draws for West Ham and Fulham) allow a glimmer of hope once again in the race for seventh, which will bring Europa League qualification.

There is no doubt Thursday night took a lot out of us but it was a flying start that we got off to with Robinho firing impressively home from a sumptuous through ball from Stephen Ireland to put us 1-0 ahead, and when Nedum Onouha took advantage of a bodycheck on Scott Carson from Felipe Caicedo (although it is safe to say Caicedo was surely fouled in the build up anyway), Mark Hughes may have been tempted to mimic Rafa Benitez in declaring the game over.

Perhaps a combination of both mental and physical tiredness allowed West Brom back into the game, and there must have been thoughts of games such as Liverpool where we contrived to allow sides back into games when we should have killed them off.

Credit though to the side, although Olsson's needless trip on Elano so soon after getting back on level terms was a gift, but Elano fired home (once again) and you did sense that West Brom felt their opportunity had gone. It was not until the final minute until the game was killed off though, when Ireland selflessley teed up Daniel Sturridge for a fourth and all but condemn our opponents to the drop.

A good three points then and a vital win as it keeps the season very much alive as we still have designs on that seventh position. With 53 points still the target I believe we need we have very little margin for error with some difficult games still on the fixture list to come.

We may need a huge amount of help from those sides ahead of us for us to achieve it, but if we keep winning that is all we can do. Time to sort out the away form then.

The race for seventh

With back to back victories coupled with results elsewhere we have put ourselves very firmly back into the race for the seventh spot - and with it a place in next seasons Europa League.

My original post on this topic calculated 53 points as the necessary points total to secure this position, and a couple of games ago this looked on the low side but West Ham have stuttered of late after a good spell so I am inclined to still believe this number of points should be sufficient.

Fulham are now the team in possession with their 1-0 victory over Stoke, and they currently have 47 points - if we hadn't been disappointingly beaten by them a couple of weeks ago, we ourselves would be the side to beat.

As it stands, I feel we still need 3 wins from our final 4 games - which of course means a victory in at least one of our two remaining away games at United and Tottenham. After the win at Everton though, that particular monkey is at least off our back.

Current table:

7. Fulham P 34 Pts 47 GD +6
8. West Ham P 34 Pts 45 GD 0
9. Manchester City P 34 Pts 44 GD +8 10. Tottenham P 34 Pts 44 GD 0
11. Wigan P 32 Pts 41 GD -6

Fulham preview and open thread

[telegraph.co.uk preview, guardian.co.uk preview, bbc sport preview]

Given West Ham's defeat at home to Tottenham today, a tricky decision lies ahead for Mark Hughes tomorrow in terms of team selection. A victory over Fulham - rivals of ours in the race for seventh position - would see us move back within 3 points of that all important UEFA Cup spot. 

However, we are beset by injuries at present with several players ruled out already and if there are any doubts tomorrow, Hughes must way up the value of their involvement against the importance of the UEFA Cup second leg at home to Hamburg on Thursday. 

Judging by Hughes's comments prior to the game, it does seem as though he is still aiming for seventh spot though and I'd back our home form of this season to carry us to another three points.

The race for seventh

With yesterday's results (how nice would a Stoke equaliser have been?) matters a very tight, with just a single point seperating West Ham in seventh to Tottenham in tenth with just three games left:

West Ham 48pts
Man City 47pts
Fulham 47pts
Tottenham 47pts

One plus point in our favour is goal differential, which our +10 is way ahead of any of the other sides. Looking ahead to next weeks fixtures, neither of the four sides faces an easy ride - but with ourselves not playing until Sunday we will at least know how other sides have fared.

I do still think 53 points will be enough to grab seventh, although this will mean West Ham winning only one of their remaining fixtures, but if we were to get enough points from our remaining games to take seventh and qualify for Europe, it will ultimately be some achievement to put a run of that nature together so late in the season given how demanding the campaign has been.

The race for seventh

A win today was vital in our bid to finish the season in seventh position and guarantee European football for next season.

In my original post on this, I calculated that 53 points should be enough to ensure a seventh place finish. The table (including todays games) is as follows with all sides having eight games remaining:

• Wigan 41 points
• West Ham 41 points
• Fulham 40 points
• City 38 points
• Tottenham 38 points

The 53 point threshold means that we still need to gain 15 points from our remaining fixtures - and with 4 winnable home games this is possible, but we are looking at the necessity of wining one of our difficult away games.

It is getting bunched with five teams realistically playing for that final European place and there all sides are showing form in recent weeks. What effect continued involvement in the UEFA Cup may have (particularly if we get to the semi-finals and have a real shot at winning it) is unknown but could feasibly hurt our chances.

Something definitely worth watching though.

United 2 City 0

A disappointing day, and like Jack, for me there were too many echoes of the 1-0 defeat earlier this season in todays game, and we never really convinced that we were ever likely to be in the game.

Principally, we lacked the intent, belief and purpose that was needed to take anything from todays game. The trio of Ireland, Robinho and Elano were in the main ineffective and given short shrift by United's midfield. Similarly, the defensive duo of de Jong and Kompany were unable to take a control of the game and be the launching point for our attacks. Surely more was to be expected from a midfield five of the quality that was on display? All of this of course allowed United a rather easy ride on course to an inevitable league title.

We were far brighter in the second half though and we more than matched United in terms of possession, but far too much of it was not built upon or was in ineffective areas. On the odd occasions that we did carve chances out (or perhaps half-chances is a more apt description) we were unable to capitalise and once again the need for a real goalscorer to be added was apparant. Nice little cameos from Petrov and Bojinov were welcome and hopefully point to better times for the pair next season.

The result was of course also a setback in the race for seventh, with Fulham perhaps getting a surprise victory yesterday leaves needing to win out to have a chance. Fulham's remaining fixtures are Everton and Newcastle and it is possible they will taste defeat in one of those games. White Hart Lane is not a happy hunting ground for us though, but that will have to change come next Saturday.

Hughes on the race for seventh

"Obviously certain things need to happen with teams in the Champions League positions winning trophies just to drop it down.

"We are probably a little bit too far away to get sixth position but certainly seventh is well within our grasp and we will be working to that end."

>>MEN.

As I've stated previously, 53 points is my calculation of what will be required to finish in seventh position.

In all likelihood we will need to put a decent winning streak (both home and away together) in order to achieve this. Perhaps it is just beyond us, but with a real focus in the league this should keep us sharp for the UEFA Cup challenges that lie ahead.

Arsenal 2 City 0

Another away game, another away game without a win.

Unfortunately, all too depressingly familiar both in terms of the return and the performance. From looking around the blogs and forums in the wake of the game, the knives for Mark Hughes also appear to be being sharpened once again.

What I find slightly worrying was the general feeling of acceptance about the defeat, the mentality that we stood no chance of victory at The Emirates so a defeat was no great surprise. Talk of Champions League qualification this season was always fanciful, but as the season has progressed has the distance between where we are at present and where we hope to be become any shorter?

The race for seventh is now surely gone. To meet my 53 point calculation, we would need 5 wins from our remaining 7 games - an unlikely feat given the polar opposites of our home and away form. Given that West Ham - the current side in possession - appear to have hit form at the right time as well.

Now the UEFA Cup takes on an added importance, and the Hamburg game this Thursday is set to be a real defining game for us. With that in mind, you do wonder why Kompany (particularly with de Jong ineligible in the UEFA Cup) and Bridge were risked when they were clearly carrying injuries heading into the game. The concern now is whether they (not to mention Stephen Ireland) will be fit for Thursday.

Talk of certain games being 'cup finals' is of course a well worn cliche, but for the sake of our season it is imperative that are able to come from Germany away with a positive result later this week.

City 1 Fulham 3

I think it is safe to say the race for seventh and European qualification via a league position is now gone.

A win today and we would have been right back in the mix, but todays defeat renders it inconceivable that we can now claw back a six point margin in our remaining fixtures, and you do wonder what what effect the loss will have on confidence within the side heading into Thursday's clash with Hamburg.

It was a much changed side that Mark Hughes put out today - most of it enforced, but with Robinho axed/rested (depending upon your standpoint) it meant a return for Martin Petrov following his long lay off through injury. Whilst Petrov's return was welcome it was perhaps too much to expect a seamless return to the side after such an absence.

Hughes spoke prior to the game of having a strong first eleven, but a significant drop off thereafter and I'm sure he feels his comments were vindicated by today's performance which featured a number of players who may not be amongst the first on the team sheet.

However, after going ahead - not against the run of the play, but hardly after dominating the opening stages - to lose control of what would have been a vital win is once again a disappointment. Especially so against a Fulham side who have struggled mightily away from home in recent times.

Tiredness (both mental and physical) can be cited and is justified to a degree, but the manner in which we conceded the goals was so frustrating and the defensive solidity that coincided with the arrival of Shay Given has dissipated. Going forward, apart from the tireless Stephen Ireland (backing up his own recent comments) we lacked the drive and creativity to close the game out and in some respects the ease in which Fulham came back to take all three points was ridiculously easy, having similar amounts of space and time in going forward that Hamburg enjoyed on Thursday.

It really is our last chance on Thursday now as what appeared to be a promising finish to the season could well be set for similar ignominy as we saw last season. There were plenty of empty seats at the final whistle, and for those that remained there was much dischord.

If we exit from the UEFA Cup this week, expect that dischord to increase.

Hughes looking to blood youngsters

"There are a number of players who are very much in my thoughts. It's about circumstances leading into games, and the expectations, and whether or not we get into the position in games where we can bring players on in a positive atmosphere and allow them to develop slowly in the correct manner.

"We have to look at how the squad is. We've probably lost Pablo for a number of games and the opportunities will present themselves. We still need to win Premier League games, that's important for us. But if the opportunity presents itself to blood a young player, we'll have a look at that.

"Sometimes when you have a game like West Brom, for instance, to throw a young kid on wouldn't be fair to him or the team, so it's about getting the timing right when you are introducing young players.

"You look to try and introduce them in front of a home crowd when maybe you are leading a game and are in a comfortable position. That's when you look to blood them."

>>mcfc.co.uk

It is always good to see young Academy players given their head in the first team, and there is no doubt a talented crop on the cusp of the senior side at the moment.

If we do haul ourselves back into the race for seventh spot and given some of the difficult fixtures we have, I do wonder quite how many opportunities there may be though.

Chelsea 1 City 0

[guardian.co.uk report, MEN report, telegraph.co.uk report]

The omens for today weren't good, and there was a sense of inevitability once Chelsea went ahead today and unfortunately, if anything it was Chelsea who were the likely of the two sides to score again.

I thought that with Kompany and de Jong out, relying on a more attacking midfield may have worked in our favour in that rather than sitting back we would take the game more to our hosts. That did not work however as the trio of Lampard, Ballack and the returning Essien stifled our attempts at creativity and were impressive themselves going forward.

Inevitably with another away defeat, and another fairly drab performance the critics would be out but it is easy to forget we were up against a very good side, who, despite the advances we have made this season, are still some way ahead of us.

Mark Hughes felt that we paid the price for Thursday's exertions and it is no doubt difficult to maintain a challenge on both fronts:

"I think that our efforts on Thursday took a little bit of sharpness out of us that we needed today. Against a side like Chelsea you have to be dynamic and have a physical presence to drive the game.

"We did not have that in our play today, and our absentees would have helped in that respect. Maybe we were just a little lightweight in key areas, and as a consequence once we went behind we found it difficult to get behind Chelsea and cause them problems in the attacking third of the pitch.

"There's the disappointment of conceding a goal like we did, but we kept going. There was not a great deal of tempo to the game, it was slow and methodical and that suited Chelsea rather than us. We were always trying to get back into the game."

This is not to duck the issue of our poor form though and the disparity in our home and away form appears no nearer to being resolved. This is though in contrast to our performances (Racing Santander excepted) in the UEFA Cup, where we have generally impressed - albeit against sides who would not be among the Premier League elite.

The race for seventh probably looks beyond us (despite our home form) if West Ham triumph tomorrow evening so given the opportunity we have in the UEFA Cup, perhaps our focus needs to be very much on the one competition we can still achieve success in this season.

Sunderland preview

In my contribution to The Observer's preview of today's game, I focused very much on the race for seventh place. Yet, with yesterday's results at the bottom end of the table, the threat of relegation has once again been raised in certain quarters.

It is not a threat I subscribe to though given our impressive home return this season, and the sheer number of teams between ourselves and the bottom three who, simply put, are not collectively good enough to put enough results together to see us fall into trouble.

A win today though (in a game which we are clear favourites) would see us again move up the table and be just a win off West Ham in seventh - a distinct possibility if we can just resolve our away woes.

Team wise (from BBC Sport) is as follows:

Stephen Ireland and Wayne Bridge picked up ankle and hamstring injuries respectively in Manchester City's Uefa Cup win over Aalborg and are doubts.

Vincent Kompany, faces a late fitness test on his toe injury but striker Craig Bellamy (knee) may feature.

Sunderland defenders Anton Ferdinand and Nyron Nosworthy are available after recovering from hamstring injuries.

Tal Ben Haim is unavailable under the terms of his loan agreement with City while Kieran Richardson is suspended.

It is of course a bonus that Nigel de Jong will return, and I would like to see Valeri Bojinov given a start today. Wayne Bridge has improved since he joined the club but I think Garrido is a serviceable replacement. Stephen Ireland's absence would be a huge blow though, but if he does miss out it is hoped that others (notably Robinho and Elano) really step up to replace both the style and industry he has brought this season.

Sunderland are not out of relegation trouble and know a win today would help their cause greatly. They do not have a great record against us in recent years and their away record is patchy this season. One area we have been consistent in this season is beating those sides at home that we really ought to be doing.

This isn't something I really see changing today and I would expect us to take all three points, likely with a 2-0 victory.

Chelsea preview and open thread

On the face of it, this game is not set up well for us.

Woeful on the road against a side who are generally impenitrable at Stamford Bridge, and who have been buoyed by the arrival of Guus Hiddink as they look to finish the season with some silverware.

Injury wise, we will be without the important midfield duo of Vincent Kompany and Nigel de Jong (along with Craig Bellamy), but given the lack of defensive options in midfield, this will see Mark Hughes adopt the same likely line-up as in midweek against Aalborg.

Both Chelsea and ourselves are amongst the top scorers in the league so far, and as Shaun Wright-Phillips states, we have been playing some excellent counter attacking and creative football in the past few games.

If anything therefore, by being forced to commit more in attack this could be where we can snatch an unlikely victory. It will be difficult however, but if we are to claw back some ground in the race for seventh (West Ham face West Brom on Monday) we do need to take something from at least one of our difficult looking away fixtures.

Game notes

• Chelsea have won seven of eight against (including Robinho's debut earlier this season)
• Chelsea have kept 15 clean sheets in 23 games against us
• We have managed only one win and one clean sheet on our travels this season